In 2025, global dry bulk carrier orders fell to a five-year low. Shipowners signed contracts for only 25 million DWT, a 54% decrease from the previous year. This is one of the sharpest declines in the history of the segment.
❓ Why have shipowners stopped ordering new ships?
1️⃣ Market instability
Freight rates for many types of bulk carriers are unstable. Owners are wary of investing millions in newbuilds when charter income is unpredictable.
2️⃣ Uncertainty about the fuel of the future.
The IMO is strengthening environmental requirements, but no one is yet sure which fuel will become the “mainstream” – methanol, ammonia, LNG, or biofuel? Ordering a vessel today means taking the risk of choosing the wrong technology for 25-30 years. Many prefer to wait.
3️⃣ High construction costs.
Although the cost of new bulk carriers has fallen slightly (by about 3%), shipyards are still overloaded with tanker, container, and LNG vessel projects. The bulk carrier segment is losing out in this competition.
4️⃣ An alternative is to buy used.
The price of 5-year-old bulk carriers has increased by 4% and now reaches 93% of the cost of a new vessel. Owners find it easier to buy a ready-made vessel and launch it today than to wait 2-3 years for construction.
🚢 What’s happening in different fleet segments
🟢 Supramax and Panamax — orders are down 76% and 55%, respectively. These are the classes that have been hit hardest by market uncertainty.
🟢 Capesize — holding up better. Demand is more stable on long routes, so the largest bulk carriers remain in demand.
🫡 What does this mean for seafarers?
1️⃣Older ships will operate longer.
If newbuilds are scarce, shipowners will extend the life of their existing fleet. Seafarers should expect to work on older vessels, where attention to technical maintenance is essential.
2️⃣Fewer new vacancies on newbuilds.
When the market orders few new ships, fewer new positions are available for delivery crews, system testing, and the formation of new crews.
3️⃣Freight surges are possible in the coming years.
If the market suddenly revives, there may be a shortage of tonnage, which will drive up rates.
4️⃣Demand for skills will increase. With the transition to environmental standards, the value of seafarers who understand dual-fuel systems, fuel economy, engine optimization, and environmental protection will increase significantly.
5️⃣ Potential fleet shortage after 2027.
If new bulk carriers are built now, the market could experience a tonnage collapse in a few years when the old ones are scrapped.
The decline in orders is not an industry crisis, but a pause before major changes. Shipowners are waiting for it to become clear which fuel will prevail, which IMO requirements will come into force, and how global trade will change.
❗️And seafarers should use this time to improve their skills—those who are skilled in operating modern equipment and new fuel types will be in demand first.
Seamen’s Club 🇺🇦 | #news